Pretty much a bullseye!
One of my best friends owns a body shop and we've discussed this subject many times.
I'll repeat one of the better stories he was involved in. Business partner of another friend came by with his newly aquired '70 Cuda convertible. Car looked good, but he did not like the color. Car had recently been restored and converted from a 318 to a 340 by a self proclaimed professional restorer and the price was high. New owner was a discerning buyer and had bags of money, but he was not knowledgable in the sense that he had rolled up his sleeves and aquired the experience for himself. Perfect Barrett Jackson material. My friend has a good reputation for quality work and he does not like to cut corners and he was not known for being the low bidder on his services. A price was agreed on and work started. The car did look good and as the teardown progressed, it became apparant that the restoration consisted of very well hidden patches on a very rusty shell. The news pretty much got worse with every bolt removed. Now, the owner thought that he had purchased a fully restored car and the shop owner took great pains to explain all the problems he was finding. This backfired. Initially, the Cuda owner went along with repairing the flaws, but as the price tripled from the original estimate, he became belligerant. Soon work on the car stopped and legal battles began. It was ugly and it lasted for a couple years. In the end, no one won. This was maybe 15 years ago and even in those days, the bill was around $20K.
Another time, same shop agreed to a quick respray for cheap on a car that was already in for an insurance claim. I know the paint had to be sprayed twice because of adverse reaction on the initial respray, but the shop owner made good on it. The customer didn't agree. He was expecting a show quality paint job for daily driver prices, so once again the legal battles began.
The price of materials has skyrocketed. Enamels gave way to urethanes which gave way to base/clear which gave way to water based. Fillers and primers must be compatible, or reactions result. Enviromental and health issues add to the cost of handling and spraying these paints. Labour alone will be a significant component. With wages in the $25/hr range and shop rates in the $75/hr range, 40 hours of shop time will run you $3000.00. Show quality paint jobs can run into the hundreds of hours and body work will add up as well. I'd expect $5K minimum for a basic respray these days. Add $2K for color changes/door jambs. $10K or $20K is not unheard of and may very well be a realistic price.
By the way, OP DarrenM, this happened in Winnipeg!