Paint experts ? Chalky paint ?

Like stated above, if you see color on your pad it's a single stage paint. I have even come across "newer" vehicles that had a single stage paint on them, but that was ten years ago or so. They still used it for a lot longer than some other manufacturers. If the clear has been eaten away from UV you will see it clearly, and the panel (most of the time on top sides of panels) will be zero gloss and you could buff all you want it ain't comin back.