Could be valve stuck open for some reason, or exhaust valve SHUT (flat cam, something broken)
Using a dowel only tells you the piston is "somewhere up." It's not accurate and does NOT tell you compression stroke
There are only two (three) ways to figure compression stroke assuming timing mark is accurate
1....finger in the hole feel for compression, then look for marks
2...Pull VC and look at valves. No 1 valves both closed on compression stroke
3...Pull dist and "guess" turning it half turn 1 and 2 are the recommended LOL