...........And the timing cover was taken out of the equation, at least from the water-pump side. The water did not reach the top of the thermostat hole - the leak is somewhere below the floor of the intake manifold as it now looks empty but liquid was still coming out.
The amount of water was the exact same flow - not pouring but not dripping either. It seems unlikely to me that after re-installing the timing cover and intake manifold, the exact same size leak would appear. So I think it must either be somewhere in a head, the head gasket, or the possibility that cylinder 1 got cracked somehow due to overtorquing a bolt that was too long or some such.
And now it's raining. Damn.