My 440 died yesterday, and I would like to avoid throwing parts at it

Crank but no start. It sure sounds like the timing is off when I crank it. It backfires through the carb and kicks back on the starter when I squirt starting fluid into the ThermoQuad. Without the starting fluid it will hardly fire at all.

I've got 6.9 volts on the primary of the coil with the ignition in the "run" position. Is this adequate?

I tested the ballast resistor, and it was OK. I'm getting battery voltage at both ends of the "run" side of the ballast, and the "start" side does show continuity.

I do get spark at the plugs when I use a neon bulb tester, but it's not as bright as I think it should be.

It's a '78 lo-compression engine with the original timing set. To determine whether the timing chain or gear has gone bad, I propose to set the crankshaft to fire #1 and then see where the distributor rotor is pointed. It seems to me that I am going to have to pull the driver's side valve cover in order to make sure the engine is on its firing stroke, but I'd like to avoid tearing the engine apart as much as possible and, of course, firing the parts cannon.

My question at this time is: do I need to pull the driver's side valve cover, or is there an easier way to determine that #1 is on its firing stroke?

Also, would you have any troubleshooting suggestions?

Thanks a lot.