Supplies Running Out?

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RustyRatRod

RustyRatRod

I was born on a Monday. Not last Monday.
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I wonder if this is happening anywhere else? Went to the Oreilly where i used to work. Manger dillhole was tellin me the distribution center in Atlanta normally has about a 75 million dollar inventory......which I already knew since I was assistant dillhole. He says now they are down to about 7 million dollars in inventory, because vendors have shut down and parts are not being made. Hell, the stores only keep about 2 million in inventory. We're talkin swift moving parts, like spark plugs, oil filters, air filters ans regular maintenance items. Went to the local Advance and they said the same thing. This is gettin stupid. Anybody else hearing this?
 
RustyRatRod said:
I wonder if this is happening anywhere else? Went to the Oreilly where i used to work. Manger dillhole was tellin me the distribution center in Atlanta normally has about a 75 million dollar inventory......which I already knew since I was assistant dillhole. He says now they are down to about 7 million dollars in inventory, because vendors have shut down and parts are not being made. Hell, the stores only keep about 2 million in inventory. We're talkin swift moving parts, like spark plugs, oil filters, air filters ans regular maintenance items. Went to the local Advance and they said the same thing. This is gettin stupid. Anybody else hearing this?
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This past week I spoke with one of my co workers from back in my working days. I worked for one of the US manufacturers of class 8 and medium duty trucks, busses and Diesel engines. I asked how many COVID 19 Related down days have occurred at the vehicle assembly plants. His reply was the total lost time was in hours,, not days and impact to vehicle production has been minimal. He said that does not mean that there have been no part shortages but it means that to date they have been successful in working with suppliers and developing new sources as supply issues have occurred.
I know that from my personal experience I have found everything that I have needed to continue my car hobby project and I have bought from: Napa, AZ, RockAuto, Summit and Amazon. I have not had one occurrence where a part or component that I was needing and was available per CV 19 was not available now. Although I do believe that part prices have increased. About the only thing that has had a lasting price decrease since CV 19 hit is gasoline.
 
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my68barracuda said:
This past week I spoke with one of my co workers from back in my working days. I worked for one of the US manufacturers of class 8 and medium duty trucks, busses and Diesel engines. I asked how many COVID 19 Related down days have occurred at the vehicle assembly plants. His reply was the total lost time was in hours,, not days and impact to vehicle production has been minimal. He said that does not mean that there have been no part shortages but it means that to date they have been successful in working with suppliers and developing new sources as supply issues have occurred.
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They probably have more freedom than corporate America. I swear, it's the stupidest thing ever with these big box stores. They have XXXX people they get things from and THAT'S IT. There's no freedom to shop around so to speak.
 
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I'm seeing more and more of it everywhere I go! We are running out of essential raw materials at work because of shipping issues idk what's going on but its getting very scary.
 
I guess aluminum is becoming a issue now also. Think we used to ship it to China to be processed then got it back "raw" Guess that stopped also
 
A counter guy at Menards was telling me the same thing. He says some of thier supply chains are empty.
 
RustyRatRod said:
I wonder if this is happening anywhere else? Went to the Oreilly where i used to work. Manger dillhole was tellin me the distribution center in Atlanta normally has about a 75 million dollar inventory......which I already knew since I was assistant dillhole. He says now they are down to about 7 million dollars in inventory, because vendors have shut down and parts are not being made. Hell, the stores only keep about 2 million in inventory. We're talkin swift moving parts, like spark plugs, oil filters, air filters ans regular maintenance items. Went to the local Advance and they said the same thing. This is gettin stupid. Anybody else hearing this?
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The local Advance has been suffering from this since about mid May. I bought, well hoarded, routine maintance items and even got a set of brake pads extra for each vehicle over the summer. figured i'd use them eventually, even if things ever do get back to normal.
 
Mike69cuda said:
A counter guy at Menards was telling me the same thing. He says some of thier supply chains are empty.
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There's a massive lumber shortage since about June, we're trying to build a house and prices have skyrocketed on lumber, added 37,000 to our build cost and a 2.5 month average wait for it.
 
halifaxhops said:
I guess aluminum is becoming a issue now also. Think we used to ship it to China to be processed then got it back "raw" Guess that stopped also
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nice. i have about 400 pounds in aluminum cans because the local scrap yard has been closed since March. no where to take them.
 
So, where are we with US manufacturers "returning"?

I know it doesn't happen over night.

My guess is they will actually move to another cheap labor foreign country, like Taiwan, or Malaysia.

...and also why aren't scrap metal prices going back up?
 
I think at least with aluminum, re smelting is super expensive here with all the EPA regulations. Scrap yard here wont take cans, no one to buy them.
 
I stopped at home depot for heat shrink tubing. the tiny 3/32 I was after... I got the one last pack (would have bought several packs). Every other size from that up to 3/4, gone. Lots of empty hooks and shelves in every store.
I emailed Gortons Seafoods and asked why I no longer find their signature seasonings tilapia at any local store. Their reply was logistics issues. They have it in the warehouse and the stores closer to their warehouse do have it. I'm in SC, my closest source is TN.
Same with Chef-Boy-Arde overstuffed itailian sausage ravioli. The stores do have other Gortons Seafood products and other Chef-Boy-Arde products so what I've deduced from this... Fewer shipments means a lot more selective discrimination. I remember unloading grocery trucks. Toilet paper takes up a lot of space. What they don't sell a lot of, they dont order. Where a product is produced is not the only issue.
 
dukeboy_318 said:
There's a massive lumber shortage since about June, we're trying to build a house and prices have skyrocketed on lumber, added 37,000 to our build cost and a 2.5 month average wait for it.
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You are correct about the price of lumber. But here in SE Tx the pine mecca, standing timber still is cheap, I mean cheap. The mills continue to run with little CV19, it is all about demand!
We have been planning to build a "shop" here for couple of years and ready to pull the trigger. It will be metal NO wood! I have built many barns, sheds, etc. all pole buildings (wood frame) , NOT this one!!!
 
mbaird said:
Boy your kids must drink a lot of soda ! Lol
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Actually most of them I pick up from the ditch in front of the house and along my wooded property. The amount of trash people throw out their cars is mind boggling. I probably pick up 4-5 trash bags worth of cans a month just from that.
 
Finished our fence which took a while getting PT wood. Also up 50% in price.
Next was gate hardware....VERY limited.
Next was track mount for our boat. Made by Cannon out of aluminum. Next to none in Ontario. Amazon wouldnt ship to me....had to buy used off Kijiji(same as US CL)
Supplies for all sorts of things are drying up. The new norm unfortunately.
 
Yeah, and with supplies up like lumber and other raw material's I believe it will keep our housing prices up. My theory has always
been if housing market is good, then everything else seems to follow. Car's,Boat's,Hobbies,Etc... just my thought.
 
I’m pretty sure the wood mills here in Oregon are running full speed. Wood is expensive as can be here also. We haven’t had many fires either.
 
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I called Mopac yesterday, a fairly decent parts supplier, to get some lifters for a small block Chevy. Nope. They have 145 sets of Comp Cams lifters on backorder, 84 of another and 40 something of another. He didnt think they would see them this year. He also said they had about a million dollars of inventory on backorder! This may not sound too big if you live in L.A., but this is in Calgary Alberta. A city of 1.3 million. The volumes are related directly.

Crazy, that is almost unbelievable. Luckily my more local store has lots of Clevite lifters in stock. I’m good to go.
Sealed Power it is.....
 
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I came to the same conclusion, that fewer shipments means a lot more selective discrimination.

I first noticed this when my favorite frozen pizza was no longer available at my local COSTCO, though many other products of the same brand were still available. I later heard on the news that the price of pepperoni had skyrocketed.

Storing product cost money, so logical for them to store less of everything, and to stop storing the slow selling product.

Also for manufacturers to adjust production, based on the same.

Also noticed everything has gone up, both goods and services around me.

Though none have been willing to confirm it for me, business owners have 2 big drivers to raise there prices, less sales volume, and higher raw product prices, coupled with fixed costs of operating such as mortgage or rent they have no choice but to still pay month over month.

Also think there is simply opportunities being taken advantage of to make a bigger buck on hot items such as sanitizer, etc..

Crazy times, I speculate there are many things in the chain of events that both get impacted when the wave is approaching, and as it departs, at different times, so it will likely be quite a bit more time for overall normality to return, and unfortunately many things may never be what they once were.
 
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Wife does rural R/E here 1 hr out f Houston. When the CV 19 first hit, everything r/e in general took a big slump. Then the last 30 dys or so, we have noticed a renewed interest in people wanting OUT of the city. Houston was spared the stupid riots even through the hero Floyd was born there and Houston was a part of his funeral trilogy. It is in general a sellers market. Low interest rates helps too.
We have also noticed prices of everything except gas as going up.
There will not be a getting back to normal until there is a working vaccine. No I don't want to argue that point!! LOL!!
 
I worked at an electrical wholesale house. we had to inventory once a year and pay tax on everything we had onsite so we palletized huge amounts of stock and put it in a C-train outside the shop to 'ship back', and keep off our books. well that stuff never left the property and when the inventory crew left, that stuff was restocked. Point is if the stuff is taxed as inventory, maybe biz chooses not to stock it if they can get it overnight or 2 day from regional distribution warehouses? Now 'cant get it' is another story. When President Trump started the chinese trade tarrifs, my local Fry's electronics (Walmart sized everything electronic store) shelves were bare, I mean nothing on some aisles! Like they were getting ready to call the shelving people to pick them up too! All the chinese stuff was sent back to the distribution centers to wait out the trade war, and to be 'revalued' so Fry's said take it all back. Strange times, its like a wakeup call if overseas supply chains were cut, by friend or foe. 2020 is going to go down in US history as possible the worst peacetime year ever for events and historical signifigance. 68 was rough, this is right up there and we have not even seen the election results. Win or lose, there is gonna be trouble. Trump winning will rattle activist cages, Biden winning will rattle financials to the core. Which candidate winning will impact you the most? Not a biased political statement, don't want it to be sent to the black hole of N&P. Rockauto still has stuff as they tend to aquire stock already in the inventories of closed stores, nothing new per say?
 
barbee6043 said:
Wife does rural R/E here 1 hr out f Houston. When the CV 19 first hit, everything r/e in general took a big slump. Then the last 30 dys or so, we have noticed a renewed interest in people wanting OUT of the city. Houston was spared the stupid riots even through the hero Floyd was born there and Houston was a part of his funeral trilogy. It is in general a sellers market. Low interest rates helps too.
We have also noticed prices of everything except gas as going up.
There will not be a getting back to normal until there is a working vaccine. No I don't want to argue that point!! LOL!!
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people leaving the city because they don't need to be there anymore. Telecommuting has been found to work well and commercial retail is tanking in cities as firms don't need a $$$ office to conduct business anymore. Think of the show "The Office" no one needs to be onsite, calls get routed to home numbers, everyone is on a VPN to corporate as if they were at their desks. Supplies are drop shipped from manufacturers. It's the dawn of a new deskless era, and it is scary for IRA's portfolios that include commercial real estate.
 
^^^^^ I agree with that too. But in large cities, there has always been people that want OUT and rather commute to their jobs there. They want to raise their kids NOT in the city. Not everyone will have a desk job at home with the puter.
One area of commercial that is glowing is the RV park. Many people now buy an RV and pay for the space, rather than rent. Less expensive, plus they can change neighborhood and state!! Many times the rate of "permanent" residents is 80 % and better.
The county wie live in is 1 hr from N side of Houston and it has 1 traffic light. 95% of the people here drive to Houston every day.
 
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