How bad is this?

Keep us advised. If they try to low ball you, I would immediately get an attorney. Maybe your insurance company could help. BTW, I agree that the damage does not look too bad. Once the quarter panel is cut off, you should see most of the damage. The only problem is that sometimes a hit on a corner like that can tweak things much further away. Finding a good shop could be hard. Maybe @Oldmanmopar could do it.