Thoughts on how to fix a depression in the roof

I suppose it's worth the $18 to give it a shot.
What will "change" the roof's mind to make it stay out if you pop it out? Nothing. I guess I would try it. But you've already verified there's a lot of filler there. It's only a matter of time, IMO until it starts turning loose. Since it's sinking in, it's already starting to happen.