The southwest US is burning
- Thread starter DodgeLad
- Start date
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I don't think you mean to sound critical of the way it's being managed, but it came across that way. For those without knowledge of wildland fire tactics, it's often pretty tough to watch from the outside looking in. It looks like they're doing nothing to the fire while the smoke just billows, but I guarantee those folks are working literally 24 hours a day using fire behavior experts, logistics teams, meteorologists on site, and boots on the ground to accomplish the safe extinguishment of the fire.
Another thing to consider is that fires don't always do what you expect them to do, so it's wise to build in a margin of safety so you don't kill your firefighters when all they would've saved is a couple trees. So, in rugged and/or steep terrain, heavy fuels, or anywhere with limited egress, extra caution is taken. Many times they won't even put crews in those situations at all, and for good reason.
Last I checked, they had almost 900 personnel assigned to the fire, and with only 11% containment and the windy/dry weather forecast, I'd expect that number to grow over the next few days. Putting out these fires isn't as simple as dumping a bunch of water on them. Management is thinking days and weeks ahead; it's very much a strategic challenge as much as it is a physical one.
DodgeLad
Skipped the Light Fandango
I have the utmost respect for firefighters. I was just whining, having to watch my beloved forest go away right in front of eyes. The fires are blowing up as I type this, especially the Calf Canyon/Hermit's Peak.
I get it. My first fire job was as a seasonal firefighter in 2010, and the main reason I pursued that job was because I wanted to respect & protect the forests, and I know many if not most of the folks in the wildland arena got the job for that same reason.
We have a couple big mountain ranges that surround my area, and every summer they light off. It's tough to watch, but then when renewal comes the next spring, I take joy in seeing the circle complete itself.
We have a couple big mountain ranges that surround my area, and every summer they light off. It's tough to watch, but then when renewal comes the next spring, I take joy in seeing the circle complete itself.
DodgeLad
Skipped the Light Fandango
Some local brains around here say there is a good chance these forests will 'never' grow back due to climate change, possibly becoming grassland.
I don't know if this is true or not. But the world IS heating up. It's worst in places like Bagdad and parts of India where daytime temps go over 120F. Imagine that temp along with no or poor air conditioning?
bobscuda67
Well-Known Member
I think it's really wrong to politicize a natural disaster and all the suffering the people there have to endure.
Unconventional
Well-Known Member
I saw 114° at midnight as a kid in Needles, Ca. My Dad saw 126° on that same day while he was working there. 1970ish
DodgeLad
Skipped the Light Fandango
Usually the winds die down at night. Not last night. 50+ mph gusts already at 7AM today, with 70 mph expected later today. Similar conditions the rest of the work week. The Calf Canyon/Hermit Peak fire has jumped the fire line, RD 518, which the firefighters worked for weeks to establish. Saying 43% contained. The Cerro Pelado fire is shifting, now forecasted to move NE, putting the Los Alamos lab and town in the path.
I climbed Hermit's Peak when I was younger, no ropes needed but a strenuous hike. A truly magical place pretty much destroyed.
I climbed Hermit's Peak when I was younger, no ropes needed but a strenuous hike. A truly magical place pretty much destroyed.
Cuda Hunter
Well-Known Member
Since the winds are blowing out of the south, Colorado is full of smoke.
Last night, the smoke and the blowing dust was blocking out the moon while I was driving home across the bottom of the state. Evacuation notice's came through for Rd 518. The fires are bad, but with no water they will only get worse here. The farmers in south east Colorado are very worried. South East Colorado is expecting 70 MPH winds today.
Last night, the smoke and the blowing dust was blocking out the moon while I was driving home across the bottom of the state. Evacuation notice's came through for Rd 518. The fires are bad, but with no water they will only get worse here. The farmers in south east Colorado are very worried. South East Colorado is expecting 70 MPH winds today.
DodgeLad
Skipped the Light Fandango
It usually doesn't rain around here for another 2+ months. And that is not guaranteed.
Ironracer
Gearhead
Man, that's just plain out Bad News.. Prayers for some relief
DodgeLad
Skipped the Light Fandango
For anyone that cares. Calf Canyon/Hermit's Peak nearly a quarter million acres now. Containment down from 43% to 33%. Moved 7 miles north in one day. Angel Fire, one of the gems of the state, in the path.
Unconventional
Well-Known Member
There was a fire bomber parked at the airport yesterday afternoon and some activity near the loading station/hangar they frequent. Looked like their spotter aircraft were being prepped to travel.
DodgeLad
Skipped the Light Fandango
The fires in total nearing the size of Rhode Island. Aldo Leopold wilderness, part of the nation's first wilderness, pretty much gone. No relief in sight for most of it. The winds usually stop in May, but not this time.
That's just awful. I'm sure there's no way those of us who don't live there can possibly know how bad this is.
DodgeLad
Skipped the Light Fandango
The country folks are tough here and they stick together. No crybabies. Makes it seem not as worse as it really is. That wilderness is God's country, part of the Continental Divide Trail.
@Righty Tighty Im in Payson right now. Many of the Forest Service resources from up here are in New Mexico on the Hermits Peak/ Calf Canyon complex. We are just covering the Pleasant Valley and Payson Districts of the Tonto NF.
Almost every single Hotshot crew has n the country is/has gotten multiple roles on the NM fire. We also have an engine in Colorado right now on a 21 day cover assignment. My engine crew started out the year in Florida then Texas. The equipment we were on had four crew swaps that did 14 day assignments each.
The grunts in the Forest Service got an early start. Some folks are getting burned out already. A friend of mine has 600 hours of overtime whereas a very busy season total is 1000 hours overtime. We are only two months into our “fire season”.
The employees have hit a wall. Many people are quitting the Federal Wildland fire service, not returning as seasonals, or are declining job offers. Pay is at the forefront and then health and work/life balance. We get paid chump change compared to other agencies and industries. A kid could go work at McDonalds and make more than fighting wildfires. People are doing 14 days on fires and coming home for their 2 days required off-time then going right back out for another 14 day fire assignment.
The Washington Office is clueless and our Agency is led by a bunch of wannabe politicians and yes-men.
I am personally thinking about leaving fire. I absolutely love my work and love traveling to our Nation’s most beautiful lands. I just can’t sustain raising 2 kids in California on $43k /yr.
Almost every single Hotshot crew has n the country is/has gotten multiple roles on the NM fire. We also have an engine in Colorado right now on a 21 day cover assignment. My engine crew started out the year in Florida then Texas. The equipment we were on had four crew swaps that did 14 day assignments each.
The grunts in the Forest Service got an early start. Some folks are getting burned out already. A friend of mine has 600 hours of overtime whereas a very busy season total is 1000 hours overtime. We are only two months into our “fire season”.
The employees have hit a wall. Many people are quitting the Federal Wildland fire service, not returning as seasonals, or are declining job offers. Pay is at the forefront and then health and work/life balance. We get paid chump change compared to other agencies and industries. A kid could go work at McDonalds and make more than fighting wildfires. People are doing 14 days on fires and coming home for their 2 days required off-time then going right back out for another 14 day fire assignment.
The Washington Office is clueless and our Agency is led by a bunch of wannabe politicians and yes-men.
I am personally thinking about leaving fire. I absolutely love my work and love traveling to our Nation’s most beautiful lands. I just can’t sustain raising 2 kids in California on $43k /yr.
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Hermits Peak Fire Information - InciWeb the Incident Information System Anytime there is a major fire in your area look at Inciweb.
Summary: The Hermits Peak Fire began April 6 as a result of the Las Dispensas prescribed fire on the Pecos/Las Vegas Ranger District of the Santa Fe National Forest. Although forecasted weather conditions were within parameters for the prescribed fire, unexpected erratic winds in the late afternoon caused multiple spot fires that spread outside the project boundary. It was declared a wildfire at approximately 4:30 p.m. on April 6, 2022. Named the Hermits Peak Fire, the wildfire began approximately 12 miles northwest of Las Vegas, NM at the base of Hermits Peak in the Pecos Wilderness. The Hermits Peak Fire is burning through mixed conifer in steep, rugged terrain that poses challenges for firefighter access.
The Calf Canyon Fire was caused by a pile burn holdover from January that remained dormant under the surface through three winter snow events before reemerging in April. A holdover fire, also called a sleeper fire, is a fire that remains dormant for a considerable time.
The fire area was rezoned to two zones on May 27; a North Zone is currently being managed by the Pacific Northwest Team 2, and a South Zone managed by California Incident Management Team 5. As increasing portions of the east side of the fire have become contained, fire managers were able to reduce the number of Incident Management Teams needed to manage this fire.
Summary: The Hermits Peak Fire began April 6 as a result of the Las Dispensas prescribed fire on the Pecos/Las Vegas Ranger District of the Santa Fe National Forest. Although forecasted weather conditions were within parameters for the prescribed fire, unexpected erratic winds in the late afternoon caused multiple spot fires that spread outside the project boundary. It was declared a wildfire at approximately 4:30 p.m. on April 6, 2022. Named the Hermits Peak Fire, the wildfire began approximately 12 miles northwest of Las Vegas, NM at the base of Hermits Peak in the Pecos Wilderness. The Hermits Peak Fire is burning through mixed conifer in steep, rugged terrain that poses challenges for firefighter access.
The Calf Canyon Fire was caused by a pile burn holdover from January that remained dormant under the surface through three winter snow events before reemerging in April. A holdover fire, also called a sleeper fire, is a fire that remains dormant for a considerable time.
The fire area was rezoned to two zones on May 27; a North Zone is currently being managed by the Pacific Northwest Team 2, and a South Zone managed by California Incident Management Team 5. As increasing portions of the east side of the fire have become contained, fire managers were able to reduce the number of Incident Management Teams needed to manage this fire.
Planned Actions:
South Zone: Patrol and mop-up any heat that has a potential to threaten containment lines. Backhaul hose, garbage and any unneeded equipment. Look for opportunities to go direct when applicable. Identify potential contingency line. Begin suppression repair efforts based on identified priorities. Mop-up and secure the 83 Road from the 203 Road south to the 200MA Road. Mop-up and secure the 82A Road south from the 82F Road to the 203 Road. Mop-up and secure the 203 Road from the 83 Road north to the 203M Road. Mop up 200' in along the 203 Road from the 83 Road north to the 203M Road. Continue direct fire line construction from DP-125 along the fires edge through Bull Creek to the Skyline Ridge. Construct line from DP-731 to County Road 63 along the 646 Road. Construct line from Mora Campground to Iron Gate Campground. Scout and prep Hamilton Mesa Trail from Iron Gate Campground to Beatty Cabin to Skyline ridge using hand line and natural features along the Pecos River drainage. Provide for structure protection at the Beatty Cabins
North Zone: Based on fuel conditions, proximity, immediacy of fire threat, Red Flag conditions, and the associated lack of aircraft, a suspension of operations on indirect lines through the current weather event will occur, with the exception to pre-position resources. Branch XX - Patrol direct line north of Martinez Pond in DIV K south to the 518 road. Ensure the line South from Cerro Picacho to the 518 corridor is secure and any green between the dozer line and the perimeter does not present a threat to the line. Improve road system from Penasco to Ripley Point along the Bear Mountain Road to allow for heavy equipment necessary for timber removal to access the SW corner of the fire near Comales Cutoff. Continue to patrol perimeter west of Angostura. Patrol the Thumb Print of fire W of dozer line tie-in. Patrol and continue to mop-up fire south of Chacon and along the 120, 434, and 94 corridors. Be prepared to assist with initial attack as requested. Anticipate limited use of aviation due to forecasted weather. Branch XXV - Planned operations to continue fuels removal along the northern community protection line from Highway 518 to Highway 76, dozer line construction South to the Luna fire scar, and construction of contingency line along the Amole-Gallegos Sardinas-Luna ridge suspended due to current weather conditions. Branch *** - Planned operations to continue fuels removal north towards HWY 64, east of Angel Fire suspended due to current weather conditions. Provide IA support. Assess suppression needs throughout Branch and begin repair, as opportunity allows. Branch XXXV - Continue to patrol the 434 road and 120 road. Only complete chipping and other suppression repair where it can be done off open roadways
South Zone: Patrol and mop-up any heat that has a potential to threaten containment lines. Backhaul hose, garbage and any unneeded equipment. Look for opportunities to go direct when applicable. Identify potential contingency line. Begin suppression repair efforts based on identified priorities. Mop-up and secure the 83 Road from the 203 Road south to the 200MA Road. Mop-up and secure the 82A Road south from the 82F Road to the 203 Road. Mop-up and secure the 203 Road from the 83 Road north to the 203M Road. Mop up 200' in along the 203 Road from the 83 Road north to the 203M Road. Continue direct fire line construction from DP-125 along the fires edge through Bull Creek to the Skyline Ridge. Construct line from DP-731 to County Road 63 along the 646 Road. Construct line from Mora Campground to Iron Gate Campground. Scout and prep Hamilton Mesa Trail from Iron Gate Campground to Beatty Cabin to Skyline ridge using hand line and natural features along the Pecos River drainage. Provide for structure protection at the Beatty Cabins
North Zone: Based on fuel conditions, proximity, immediacy of fire threat, Red Flag conditions, and the associated lack of aircraft, a suspension of operations on indirect lines through the current weather event will occur, with the exception to pre-position resources. Branch XX - Patrol direct line north of Martinez Pond in DIV K south to the 518 road. Ensure the line South from Cerro Picacho to the 518 corridor is secure and any green between the dozer line and the perimeter does not present a threat to the line. Improve road system from Penasco to Ripley Point along the Bear Mountain Road to allow for heavy equipment necessary for timber removal to access the SW corner of the fire near Comales Cutoff. Continue to patrol perimeter west of Angostura. Patrol the Thumb Print of fire W of dozer line tie-in. Patrol and continue to mop-up fire south of Chacon and along the 120, 434, and 94 corridors. Be prepared to assist with initial attack as requested. Anticipate limited use of aviation due to forecasted weather. Branch XXV - Planned operations to continue fuels removal along the northern community protection line from Highway 518 to Highway 76, dozer line construction South to the Luna fire scar, and construction of contingency line along the Amole-Gallegos Sardinas-Luna ridge suspended due to current weather conditions. Branch *** - Planned operations to continue fuels removal north towards HWY 64, east of Angel Fire suspended due to current weather conditions. Provide IA support. Assess suppression needs throughout Branch and begin repair, as opportunity allows. Branch XXXV - Continue to patrol the 434 road and 120 road. Only complete chipping and other suppression repair where it can be done off open roadways
Projected Incident Activity:
12 hours: South Zone: Continued warm and dry conditions will allow portions of the fire to become active to very active with an extended burn period due to windy conditions. Spots up to .5 miles has been observed recently. Southwest winds will transition to a period of easterly flows that will continue to test successful suppression actions in the Bull Creek drainage, Ruidoso Ridge, and Apache Canyon areas west of Upper Colonias. Some interior fire activity is occurring in unburned islands and partially burned areas on the east side of the South Zone in the Big Pine and Calf Creek areas. Conditions are favorable for aggressive head fire runs on wind aligned slopes with long range spotting, active backing, and flanking fire spread on west facing slopes. Upper elevations on the north end of the South Zone, west of Spring Mountain in the Pecos Wilderness will become progressively active with backing and flanking fire on the upper slopes of Rito del Oso and Rito los Esteros headwaters. Visible smoke columns with smoke lofting to the east-northeast are likely with increased afternoon fire activity.
North Zone: Overall fire activity will continue as humidity's, temperatures and wind speeds increase as the Red Flag Warning for the day continues. Today area on the Northwest corner of the fire South of the 518 highway corridor continues to have ground fire in the heavy dead and down fuels, uphill runs, group tree torching and short-range spotting. Hot spots and smokey areas are starting to increase in the interior of the fire.
24 hours: South Zone: Unsettled weather with increasing clouds, cooling, higher day/night relative humidity is forecast. Winds will be switching from an easterly flow to south-southwest pattern. A change in the weather will produce moderating fire behavior potential. Conditions are favorable to up-slope head fire runs with torching and spotting, active flanking fire, and backing spread. The southwesterly wind pattern will result in continued up-drainage and up-slope fire spread in unchecked portions of fire west of Spring Mountain and in the Pecos Wilderness. Diminished smoke production with changed weather conditions and effective suppression action.
North Zone: Fire behavior may decrease as temperatures start to drop and humidity increase to the low double digits. Poor nighttime recoveries will allow the burn period to start earlier and fire activity to last longer into the evening. Predicted fire behavior will still be short range spotting, single/group tree torching and short uphill runs. Interior smokes will be observed. The Red Flag Warning issued for the fire area yesterday is moving to critical fire weather along with an afternoon shift of winds to a SE direction through the evening.
48 hours: South Zone: Continuing partly cloudy skies, cooler, moister conditions with increased chance of thunderstorms are forecast. Weather and fire behavior conditions will be slightly reduced with the changing weather patterns, but fuels continue to be extremely dry. There will be continued active backing, cross-slope flanking fire, and up-slope head fire spread on unlined fire perimeter on wind exposed portions of the Zone where the fire is active. Smoke columns are likely from continued fire activity.
North Zone: The critical fire weather for the fire area now moves into a possible thunderstorm condition. As double-digit relative humidity continues but poor fuel moisture recoveries continue, a slight drop in the daytime temperatures and SE winds will transition back to SW winds will cause the fire to stay active as previous days. Predicted fire behavior will be short range spotting, single/group tree torching with short crown fire runs. Fire activity will increase where wind. fuels and topography align along with any strong down drafts.
72 hours: South Zone: There will be moderated fire activity due to partly cloudy skies, cool, and relatively moist conditions. The chance of thunderstorms provides the potential for new ignitions, erratic winds, and increased fire activity. Limited fire spread potential with increased day/nighttime relative humidity is forecast. Fuels remain extremely dry and will retain heat producing backing, and flanking spread on wind exposed western slopes.
North Zone: Continued thunderstorm conditions may produce some very active to extreme fire behavior from storm down drafts. Conditions include the potential for large/rapid fire growth and high intensity fire behavior that will be conducive to crown fire runs, long-range spotting, and plume dominated fire behavior. Thunderstorm activity will increase and possible bring erratic down drafts along with slight chance of shower possible in the area.
Anticipated after 72 hours: South Zone: A period of warming and drying resumes with a southwesterly wind pattern resulting in increased threat of fire activity. Fuel conditions will remain critically dry and favorable for active to very active fire behavior.
North Zone: Increasing daytime relative humidity and better nighttime recovery will begin to slow fire behavior as the area stays with the thunderstorms predicted. The fire behavior will consist of occasional single/group tree torching, short range spotting and short uphill runs with any down drafts as the thunderstorms pass through, this could increase fire behavior, but this activity may be diminished if showers occur in that area.
12 hours: South Zone: Continued warm and dry conditions will allow portions of the fire to become active to very active with an extended burn period due to windy conditions. Spots up to .5 miles has been observed recently. Southwest winds will transition to a period of easterly flows that will continue to test successful suppression actions in the Bull Creek drainage, Ruidoso Ridge, and Apache Canyon areas west of Upper Colonias. Some interior fire activity is occurring in unburned islands and partially burned areas on the east side of the South Zone in the Big Pine and Calf Creek areas. Conditions are favorable for aggressive head fire runs on wind aligned slopes with long range spotting, active backing, and flanking fire spread on west facing slopes. Upper elevations on the north end of the South Zone, west of Spring Mountain in the Pecos Wilderness will become progressively active with backing and flanking fire on the upper slopes of Rito del Oso and Rito los Esteros headwaters. Visible smoke columns with smoke lofting to the east-northeast are likely with increased afternoon fire activity.
North Zone: Overall fire activity will continue as humidity's, temperatures and wind speeds increase as the Red Flag Warning for the day continues. Today area on the Northwest corner of the fire South of the 518 highway corridor continues to have ground fire in the heavy dead and down fuels, uphill runs, group tree torching and short-range spotting. Hot spots and smokey areas are starting to increase in the interior of the fire.
24 hours: South Zone: Unsettled weather with increasing clouds, cooling, higher day/night relative humidity is forecast. Winds will be switching from an easterly flow to south-southwest pattern. A change in the weather will produce moderating fire behavior potential. Conditions are favorable to up-slope head fire runs with torching and spotting, active flanking fire, and backing spread. The southwesterly wind pattern will result in continued up-drainage and up-slope fire spread in unchecked portions of fire west of Spring Mountain and in the Pecos Wilderness. Diminished smoke production with changed weather conditions and effective suppression action.
North Zone: Fire behavior may decrease as temperatures start to drop and humidity increase to the low double digits. Poor nighttime recoveries will allow the burn period to start earlier and fire activity to last longer into the evening. Predicted fire behavior will still be short range spotting, single/group tree torching and short uphill runs. Interior smokes will be observed. The Red Flag Warning issued for the fire area yesterday is moving to critical fire weather along with an afternoon shift of winds to a SE direction through the evening.
48 hours: South Zone: Continuing partly cloudy skies, cooler, moister conditions with increased chance of thunderstorms are forecast. Weather and fire behavior conditions will be slightly reduced with the changing weather patterns, but fuels continue to be extremely dry. There will be continued active backing, cross-slope flanking fire, and up-slope head fire spread on unlined fire perimeter on wind exposed portions of the Zone where the fire is active. Smoke columns are likely from continued fire activity.
North Zone: The critical fire weather for the fire area now moves into a possible thunderstorm condition. As double-digit relative humidity continues but poor fuel moisture recoveries continue, a slight drop in the daytime temperatures and SE winds will transition back to SW winds will cause the fire to stay active as previous days. Predicted fire behavior will be short range spotting, single/group tree torching with short crown fire runs. Fire activity will increase where wind. fuels and topography align along with any strong down drafts.
72 hours: South Zone: There will be moderated fire activity due to partly cloudy skies, cool, and relatively moist conditions. The chance of thunderstorms provides the potential for new ignitions, erratic winds, and increased fire activity. Limited fire spread potential with increased day/nighttime relative humidity is forecast. Fuels remain extremely dry and will retain heat producing backing, and flanking spread on wind exposed western slopes.
North Zone: Continued thunderstorm conditions may produce some very active to extreme fire behavior from storm down drafts. Conditions include the potential for large/rapid fire growth and high intensity fire behavior that will be conducive to crown fire runs, long-range spotting, and plume dominated fire behavior. Thunderstorm activity will increase and possible bring erratic down drafts along with slight chance of shower possible in the area.
Anticipated after 72 hours: South Zone: A period of warming and drying resumes with a southwesterly wind pattern resulting in increased threat of fire activity. Fuel conditions will remain critically dry and favorable for active to very active fire behavior.
North Zone: Increasing daytime relative humidity and better nighttime recovery will begin to slow fire behavior as the area stays with the thunderstorms predicted. The fire behavior will consist of occasional single/group tree torching, short range spotting and short uphill runs with any down drafts as the thunderstorms pass through, this could increase fire behavior, but this activity may be diminished if showers occur in that area.
Weather:
South: Monday saw a third successive day of solidly critical fire weather conditions, with westerly winds gusting between 40 and 55 mph for much of the fire footprint and relative humidity once again lowering into the lower teens and single digits. Poor to moderate humidity recovery is anticipated tonight, with much lighter southwesterly winds Tuesday. Nonetheless, some of the higher terrain may still be exposed to lingering breezy conditions in the afternoon, enough for gusts up to 35 mph and marginally critical fire weather conditions given little change in daytime humidity. A backdoor front will enter northeastern New Mexico late in the day, shifting winds to an easterly direction late Tuesday for areas due east of the ridge tops. This wind shift likely will not arrive until after midnight for the sensitive locations along the ridge tops and into the Pecos Valley.
North: A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1100 Monday morning through 2100 Monday evening. Minimum relative humidity values fell to the 7-11% range so far today. Daytime temperatures are slightly cooler today, currently in the mid-60s to low 70s. Very strong southwest winds will persist through the rest of today, diminishing overnight. A Red Flag Warning is in effect on Tuesday from 1 pm to 8 pm. Critical fire weather conditions will continue on Tuesday, ahead of a pattern shift that will come through Tuesday night. Winds will be lighter however the direction will shift from southwesterly to southeasterly Tuesday evening. Minimum relative humidity values will be between 7 and 15%. Daytime temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Winds will still be breezy, out of the southwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph, becoming southeasterly at 10-15 mph overnight. The Haines will be a 6.
Outlook Wednesday: Southeasterly winds in the early morning will swing back around to southwest during the morning. Wind speeds will be 10-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will be approximately 10-15 % higher, in the 17-23% range. Temperatures will be similar to Tuesday, in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night, with best chances in the late evening and overnight. The Haines will be a 6.
South: Monday saw a third successive day of solidly critical fire weather conditions, with westerly winds gusting between 40 and 55 mph for much of the fire footprint and relative humidity once again lowering into the lower teens and single digits. Poor to moderate humidity recovery is anticipated tonight, with much lighter southwesterly winds Tuesday. Nonetheless, some of the higher terrain may still be exposed to lingering breezy conditions in the afternoon, enough for gusts up to 35 mph and marginally critical fire weather conditions given little change in daytime humidity. A backdoor front will enter northeastern New Mexico late in the day, shifting winds to an easterly direction late Tuesday for areas due east of the ridge tops. This wind shift likely will not arrive until after midnight for the sensitive locations along the ridge tops and into the Pecos Valley.
North: A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1100 Monday morning through 2100 Monday evening. Minimum relative humidity values fell to the 7-11% range so far today. Daytime temperatures are slightly cooler today, currently in the mid-60s to low 70s. Very strong southwest winds will persist through the rest of today, diminishing overnight. A Red Flag Warning is in effect on Tuesday from 1 pm to 8 pm. Critical fire weather conditions will continue on Tuesday, ahead of a pattern shift that will come through Tuesday night. Winds will be lighter however the direction will shift from southwesterly to southeasterly Tuesday evening. Minimum relative humidity values will be between 7 and 15%. Daytime temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Winds will still be breezy, out of the southwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph, becoming southeasterly at 10-15 mph overnight. The Haines will be a 6.
Outlook Wednesday: Southeasterly winds in the early morning will swing back around to southwest during the morning. Wind speeds will be 10-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will be approximately 10-15 % higher, in the 17-23% range. Temperatures will be similar to Tuesday, in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night, with best chances in the late evening and overnight. The Haines will be a 6.
Enjoy Payson, it's gorgeous up there.
It always floors me when I hear how little the Feds get paid. It's completely unfair and unless something changes, they're gonna be in a bad situation eventually. We're private, so a lot of times we don't get invited to go help, but fortunately we have a good relationship with the ODF (Oregon Dept. of Forestry). Nothing's burning up there yet, though.
Bottom line. IF man is not managing timber/brush/grasslands... then nature and God does. It is a must have part of nature. Surely the Green people understand? But they are maybe just studying CO2 levels?
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