The southwest US is burning

Projected Incident Activity:

12 hours: South Zone: Continued warm and dry conditions will allow portions of the fire to become active to very active with an extended burn period due to windy conditions. Spots up to .5 miles has been observed recently. Southwest winds will transition to a period of easterly flows that will continue to test successful suppression actions in the Bull Creek drainage, Ruidoso Ridge, and Apache Canyon areas west of Upper Colonias. Some interior fire activity is occurring in unburned islands and partially burned areas on the east side of the South Zone in the Big Pine and Calf Creek areas. Conditions are favorable for aggressive head fire runs on wind aligned slopes with long range spotting, active backing, and flanking fire spread on west facing slopes. Upper elevations on the north end of the South Zone, west of Spring Mountain in the Pecos Wilderness will become progressively active with backing and flanking fire on the upper slopes of Rito del Oso and Rito los Esteros headwaters. Visible smoke columns with smoke lofting to the east-northeast are likely with increased afternoon fire activity.

North Zone: Overall fire activity will continue as humidity's, temperatures and wind speeds increase as the Red Flag Warning for the day continues. Today area on the Northwest corner of the fire South of the 518 highway corridor continues to have ground fire in the heavy dead and down fuels, uphill runs, group tree torching and short-range spotting. Hot spots and smokey areas are starting to increase in the interior of the fire.

24 hours: South Zone: Unsettled weather with increasing clouds, cooling, higher day/night relative humidity is forecast. Winds will be switching from an easterly flow to south-southwest pattern. A change in the weather will produce moderating fire behavior potential. Conditions are favorable to up-slope head fire runs with torching and spotting, active flanking fire, and backing spread. The southwesterly wind pattern will result in continued up-drainage and up-slope fire spread in unchecked portions of fire west of Spring Mountain and in the Pecos Wilderness. Diminished smoke production with changed weather conditions and effective suppression action.

North Zone: Fire behavior may decrease as temperatures start to drop and humidity increase to the low double digits. Poor nighttime recoveries will allow the burn period to start earlier and fire activity to last longer into the evening. Predicted fire behavior will still be short range spotting, single/group tree torching and short uphill runs. Interior smokes will be observed. The Red Flag Warning issued for the fire area yesterday is moving to critical fire weather along with an afternoon shift of winds to a SE direction through the evening.

48 hours: South Zone: Continuing partly cloudy skies, cooler, moister conditions with increased chance of thunderstorms are forecast. Weather and fire behavior conditions will be slightly reduced with the changing weather patterns, but fuels continue to be extremely dry. There will be continued active backing, cross-slope flanking fire, and up-slope head fire spread on unlined fire perimeter on wind exposed portions of the Zone where the fire is active. Smoke columns are likely from continued fire activity.

North Zone: The critical fire weather for the fire area now moves into a possible thunderstorm condition. As double-digit relative humidity continues but poor fuel moisture recoveries continue, a slight drop in the daytime temperatures and SE winds will transition back to SW winds will cause the fire to stay active as previous days. Predicted fire behavior will be short range spotting, single/group tree torching with short crown fire runs. Fire activity will increase where wind. fuels and topography align along with any strong down drafts.

72 hours: South Zone: There will be moderated fire activity due to partly cloudy skies, cool, and relatively moist conditions. The chance of thunderstorms provides the potential for new ignitions, erratic winds, and increased fire activity. Limited fire spread potential with increased day/nighttime relative humidity is forecast. Fuels remain extremely dry and will retain heat producing backing, and flanking spread on wind exposed western slopes.

North Zone: Continued thunderstorm conditions may produce some very active to extreme fire behavior from storm down drafts. Conditions include the potential for large/rapid fire growth and high intensity fire behavior that will be conducive to crown fire runs, long-range spotting, and plume dominated fire behavior. Thunderstorm activity will increase and possible bring erratic down drafts along with slight chance of shower possible in the area.

Anticipated after 72 hours: South Zone: A period of warming and drying resumes with a southwesterly wind pattern resulting in increased threat of fire activity. Fuel conditions will remain critically dry and favorable for active to very active fire behavior.

North Zone: Increasing daytime relative humidity and better nighttime recovery will begin to slow fire behavior as the area stays with the thunderstorms predicted. The fire behavior will consist of occasional single/group tree torching, short range spotting and short uphill runs with any down drafts as the thunderstorms pass through, this could increase fire behavior, but this activity may be diminished if showers occur in that area.