But this morning’s massive drop makes me wish I hadn’t reinvested $700 yesterday.
Stock Market
- Thread starter Inertia
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like_A_pike
that's not factory
I think the initial euphoria has worn off after the elections. AND the economy is still showing strong signs which are messing with investors’ pricing in more interest rate cuts in 2025. AND lots of folks seem to believe that most stocks are selling at a premium still. So prices are coming back down a little. Do your research before buying bonds. There may be option for 10 and 30 year notes but I won’t be buying any! Happy hunting.
"The market" in general does not like chaos, particularly political chaos.
What has been happening with the incoming administration?
If you said "chaos", give yourself a point.
* Note- this is NOT a political post, it is a post about the stock market that references politics in a non partison manner.
What has been happening with the incoming administration?
If you said "chaos", give yourself a point.
* Note- this is NOT a political post, it is a post about the stock market that references politics in a non partison manner.
mopowers
Well-Known Member
The S&P was up what about 25% each of the last two years - and in 2021. I wouldn't be surprised by a correction. I'm a long term investor so I just ride it out.
My broken Crystal ball. 2025 will do OK Expect a 10-15% pullback a few times in the indexes.
2026 gonna be a nasty mess
2026 gonna be a nasty mess
Since I am OLD and I have just a little savings for when I must have some $, and can not afford to risk what I do have, but I enjoy listening to the talking heads.
They say, in general, watch the relationship between the 10 yr bond and short terms, they have been out of wack quite a while. As has many other details. 10 yr bonds are still going up while the Fed drops rates. WTF? 2025 will NOT have the staggering increases on Wall St. we have seen the last 2 years.
Maybe in 2025, we will see some accurate data for the Fed to follow, even if they are always a day late and a $ short!?
Since they all agree that Wall St and Main St are not the same, we will see what 2025 has to offer. They all agree inflation will not go away, and the 2% target will get pushed higher/
They don't like to predict any corrections, but yet some do.
USDA screwed the pooch on grain yields and current supplies. Someone made some $ over the last 3 months, and it wasn't the farmer.
Yes, I ain't no Wall St. investor!!!!!!
I had to take out a short term loan to buy a few steaks other day. Next time it might be a long term load!!?? 
They say, in general, watch the relationship between the 10 yr bond and short terms, they have been out of wack quite a while. As has many other details. 10 yr bonds are still going up while the Fed drops rates. WTF? 2025 will NOT have the staggering increases on Wall St. we have seen the last 2 years.
Maybe in 2025, we will see some accurate data for the Fed to follow, even if they are always a day late and a $ short!?
Since they all agree that Wall St and Main St are not the same, we will see what 2025 has to offer. They all agree inflation will not go away, and the 2% target will get pushed higher/
They don't like to predict any corrections, but yet some do.
USDA screwed the pooch on grain yields and current supplies. Someone made some $ over the last 3 months, and it wasn't the farmer.
Yes, I ain't no Wall St. investor!!!!!!
I had to take out a short term loan to buy a few steaks other day. Next time it might be a long term load!!??
like_A_pike
that's not factory
APP for the win this morning.... OKLO was solid last week. happy hunting
44070dart
How the hell did I get this old..
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Quoted from above .." USDA screwed the pooch on grain yields and current supplies. Someone made some $ over the last 3 months, and it wasn't the farmer "
>> Taxpayers sent almost $123.2 billion to farmers between 2018 and 2022. Crop insurance premium subsidies brought in another $39.2 billion during those years, totaling $162.4 billion, or more than $30 billion a year. Sep 28, 2023 <<
Listen I like to eat, and I know the farmers allow me to do that, but with that said, that seems to be a lot of subsidies money going to them. I'm not knowledgeable on the issue, I'm just reading. It seems like someone is doing pretty well with that kind of money being given out, and some farmers being paid NOT to grow crops. Again not trying to poke the guy who gives me my breakfast, maybe I'm missing something , but that's a lot of cabbage being given out.
>> Taxpayers sent almost $123.2 billion to farmers between 2018 and 2022. Crop insurance premium subsidies brought in another $39.2 billion during those years, totaling $162.4 billion, or more than $30 billion a year. Sep 28, 2023 <<
Listen I like to eat, and I know the farmers allow me to do that, but with that said, that seems to be a lot of subsidies money going to them. I'm not knowledgeable on the issue, I'm just reading. It seems like someone is doing pretty well with that kind of money being given out, and some farmers being paid NOT to grow crops. Again not trying to poke the guy who gives me my breakfast, maybe I'm missing something , but that's a lot of cabbage being given out.
Farming is very expensive. Weather is unpredictable. The farmer/rancher has no control over prices, other than hedging/forward contracts. One bad year can wipe out a framer and all he worked for all his life. If our Nation's ag went South, the USA would be a screwed pooch. Millions of people depending on their counties for food and fiber, which would be much worse than our dependency on China for everything else!
Ag is a complicated and fragile industry, even more fragile than the US economy in general!
I referred to the poor stats the USDA handed out and how it can play into the hands of speculators. Blame the gov ment for bad data, and like the speculators cluster*** the oil market from time to time!
Ag is a complicated and fragile industry, even more fragile than the US economy in general!
I referred to the poor stats the USDA handed out and how it can play into the hands of speculators. Blame the gov ment for bad data, and like the speculators cluster*** the oil market from time to time!
The stock market is way overvalued in my opinion. By almost every metric, this market is sky high. Take a look at the CAPE ratio for example (also known as the Shiller PE ratio) . The S&P ended 2024 at a level of almost 38. Historically speaking, the index average is around 15. The only other time in history it was higher was during the Dot.com era. And we all know what happened then. Black Tuesday before the 1929 crash was 30.
The government dumped an unprecedented amount of liquidity into the economy after Covid, the obvious and immediate results of that was the runaway inflation. Even though the average guy out there has spend his/her "stimie" checks long ago, the M2 money supply is still at historical highs. Look at a chart, it looks like a hockey stick. There has never been this much money sloshing around in the economy and it's thrown everything out whack.
So no telling how things will work out this time around. But in my opinion, we do need a pretty healthy correction before I'm ready to start adding positions to my portfolio. I'm not selling any more, but I have lightened my risk exposure, took some profits and raised my liquid cash position. I'm happy with letting what I still have ride through any pending storm and getting 4%-5% on my cash while I wait for a better entry point to pounce and feather back in.
With that said, it doesn't mean that the market won't continue to go higher over the near term. Bubbles can grow for a long time before they finally pop, or even have a meaningful correction.
The government dumped an unprecedented amount of liquidity into the economy after Covid, the obvious and immediate results of that was the runaway inflation. Even though the average guy out there has spend his/her "stimie" checks long ago, the M2 money supply is still at historical highs. Look at a chart, it looks like a hockey stick. There has never been this much money sloshing around in the economy and it's thrown everything out whack.
So no telling how things will work out this time around. But in my opinion, we do need a pretty healthy correction before I'm ready to start adding positions to my portfolio. I'm not selling any more, but I have lightened my risk exposure, took some profits and raised my liquid cash position. I'm happy with letting what I still have ride through any pending storm and getting 4%-5% on my cash while I wait for a better entry point to pounce and feather back in.
With that said, it doesn't mean that the market won't continue to go higher over the near term. Bubbles can grow for a long time before they finally pop, or even have a meaningful correction.
Trump tarrifed China so they cancelled orders . Not a political staement … just reality . Farmers were going bankrupt at an alarming pace.
If you think the market will take a tumble, look into a collar options strategy on your holdings. Sometimes it can be freeish downside insurance with limits on upside.
That way you don't have a cap gains hit if the market goes down and you liquidate any long term positions that are large positive. Let the put side take care of any gains, limiting a much larger cap gains hit.
We want to hear about your Boer goats and goat futures!!Since I am OLD and I have just a little savings for when I must have some $, and can not afford to risk what I do have, but I enjoy listening to the talking heads.
They say, in general, watch the relationship between the 10 yr bond and short terms, they have been out of wack quite a while. As has many other details. 10 yr bonds are still going up while the Fed drops rates. WTF? 2025 will NOT have the staggering increases on Wall St. we have seen the last 2 years.
Maybe in 2025, we will see some accurate data for the Fed to follow, even if they are always a day late and a $ short!?
Since they all agree that Wall St and Main St are not the same, we will see what 2025 has to offer. They all agree inflation will not go away, and the 2% target will get pushed higher/
They don't like to predict any corrections, but yet some do.
USDA screwed the pooch on grain yields and current supplies. Someone made some $ over the last 3 months, and it wasn't the farmer.
Yes, I ain't no Wall St. investor!!!!!!
I had to take out a short term loan to buy a few steaks other day. Next time it might be a long term load!!??
Ha There is NO future trading in goats I know of!!! ha againWe want to hear about your Boer goats and goat futures!!
Boers are a meat goat developed in S. Africa.
We raise what is called wither breds, FFA kids buy project goats, goats are part of the line up of livestock shown at everything from local shows to the major stock shows. We sell nannies for breeding, a Boer goat can cost anywhere from a few hundred to thousands. Just like classic cars.
mopowers
Well-Known Member
Are goats easy to take care? How do they compare to sheep? The wife and I are thinking about getting some when we move to a bigger place.
Comparable I woulds say but I have never raised sheep.
Feed, forage is a big thing with both, worming, vacs, foot trimming unless in rocky ground. Sometimes a "companion" dog is necessary to protect them from predators, roaming dogs. Death loss can occur from birthing, disease. Makes a difference if a $300 or $3000 critter.
Feed, forage is a big thing with both, worming, vacs, foot trimming unless in rocky ground. Sometimes a "companion" dog is necessary to protect them from predators, roaming dogs. Death loss can occur from birthing, disease. Makes a difference if a $300 or $3000 critter.
mopowers
Well-Known Member
Thanks. Is there a general rule of thumb for how many are needed per acre to keep the weeds down?
Yeah... I've thought about writing some covered calls to generate some extra income. But like I was saying, these irrational bull runs can go on and on for a while. I do think that we are overdue for a correction. The question is when. It's near impossible to time markets.
Obviously with options, you're buying time. You could be dead right, but if the move you are expecting happens one day after expiration, the options have expired worthless. Which is great for the cover calls if the market doesn't hit your strike price, you keep the premium.
But if the market keeps screaming, the underlying security gets called away and you've limited the upside potential. At this point, I've taken some chips off the table to minimize the down side and upped my cash reserves to be ready to buy back in if the market does correct. If the market keeps screaming, I'm still and getting 4%-5% on my cash reserves.
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I have no idea. I would find a local guy that raises sheep, and quiz him. It will depend on kinds of weeds, grasses, rainfall and when it comes. Probably any sheep or goat will require supplemental feed parts of the year at least I bet. Remember sheep will eat anything from bicycle tires on up. Sheep are dumb critters too!
Powell certainly didn't help it any today...
Got to roll those calls up and out when they get tested if you want to keep your shares.
Sell puts on equities you'd be OK owning at prices below current levels. Shhhh same risk profile as selling covered calls on shares you own. Dirty secret!!!
like_A_pike
that's not factory
PLTR was hot this week -but I wasn’t on that train! OKLO worked out today (after a -7% gut punch earlier in the week).
Happy hunting!
Happy hunting!
I don't see anything worth buying right now after a cursory scan.
Don't see anything I have worth selling, either.
Holdings haven't moved much despite the recent volatility.
Still getting my 8.5% dividends, though.
$368 yesterday.
$211 Monday.
Don't see anything I have worth selling, either.
Holdings haven't moved much despite the recent volatility.
Still getting my 8.5% dividends, though.
$368 yesterday.
$211 Monday.
like_A_pike
that's not factory
Hard to find a bargain fer sure! The Russel 2000 seemed strong all week, It might be time to do some research on small caps.
But, After the big tech guys sunk the index today. -reporting ho hum growth but massive capex on AI in the near future, I went back to the best in show beneficiary of all this spending after selling the OKLO.
I held VZ for longer than I expected last month and wound up getting a distribution. Jeez that’s alright! .60sumpthing on 1400 shares. I’ll take it.
But, After the big tech guys sunk the index today. -reporting ho hum growth but massive capex on AI in the near future, I went back to the best in show beneficiary of all this spending after selling the OKLO.
I held VZ for longer than I expected last month and wound up getting a distribution. Jeez that’s alright! .60sumpthing on 1400 shares. I’ll take it.
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