If you footbrake and shift manually instead of having all that done with electronic aids, you have to be keenly aware of any variations YOU make. A playback tach is very helpful because it shows what actually happened instead of what you perceive happened. (i.e.: launch rpm & shift points.) But there is more! Water temps, sunny/cloudy and breeze strength & direction must also be considered. If there is a variation in the input, then there will be a variation in the prediction. But it is difficult to cover all the bases (variables). Some weather stations have a wind option but the swirling around the testing spot is not the same as on the wide open track. Even bleachers and where they end can change the wind influence on the track. There is also the natural change in weather, like a front coming through or wind direction. Checking as late as possible before a run can help also. As everyone says - accurate data in will provides accurate and consistent data/predictions. Just do the best you can.
Sometimes, for unknown reasons, I'd go to a different track and predictions were off a bit. If it did it consistently, I would simply factor the difference into the prediction ( i.e.: +.02). It's not magic and it's not perfect but it certainly helped me win a lot over the years, especially in IHRA. I preferred the Altronics PerformAIRE version.