Stock Market

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I battened down the hatches with my 401k by pulling all but 25% in equities and I added a bit to bonds. The rest is sitting in that capital preserve fund soon after that last post. Sold the NVDA then too and thought I could sit it out with my retail account….Nope! I jumped on AXON when it fell 15%. Looking for a quick 4% rebound. Then it fell another 20%! It’s clawed half of that back but it sounds like most retail investors have left the building or are stuck with a bunch of $140/ NVDA shares themselves! I’m gonna let the red roll and see what happens. It sounds like there was a lot of pressure on the institutional investors to exit too. But I am betting that a bunch of liquid capital will be looking for a home on the next batch of good news. Who knows how long Warren Buffet is gonna wait?

Happy hunting.
 
I lost 2K in value this past week, but I had a $245 cash payday today, and will have $1061 more in dividends and distributions before the month (Q1) is over.
 
I told my money manager we should move my IRA over to Bonds last week and he said we should just hold. I said I was concerned about the ramifications of these tariffs.. and look what we have this week …urgh!
Who would’ve seen this coming lol
 
On Reuters a few nights back the talk was about Rare Earth, seems rhat a lot of politics are focused on it. PICK AND XME were mentioned.
 
I’m watching NOC & LMT right now, things like PG, KO & VZ cuz they aren’t as discretionary and SIRI of all things , ever since Berkshire Hathaway took a liking to them a few months back. Also watch WY and RYN for real time reality checks on stuff we can’t talk about here.
But NVDA @ $108???? Is so hard not to jump on!
 

I have some dollars in a Roth. I should probably roll most of it over to a CD or something. Or should I just ride it out. It will take a while to loose all the profit.
 
toolmanmike said:
I have some dollars in a Roth. I should probably roll most of it over to a CD or something. Or should I just ride it out. It will take a while to loose all the profit.
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I would put it in a CD. At our age we can't afford to lose as we don't have the time to make up the lost funds.
 
Talk to your advisor about capital preservation funds before the dips. If you are already in the hole, ride it back up. Look at the graphs for New Year 2017-2018. And March 2020. I feel this episode is like those…
 
If your IRA is managed, they should do a pretty good job about managing losses and buying the dip.

My only account I don't manage myself is a VOYA account that I can't contribute to anymore, but it has doubled in the last 7 years despite no more contributions.

That's pretty good management IMO.
 
like_A_pike said:
But NVDA @ $108???? Is so hard not to jump on!
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I saw something today with one of the women on cnbc saying that the street doesn't believe the earnings going forward on NVDA. Apple has a 30+ pe and the growth is garbage compared to NVDA. NVDA pe is in the low 20's IIRC How is apple valued like that? Makes no sense. One thing is for sure, the AI nuclear bomb blow up is going to be epic.

I do a thing with put options every week on NVDA. I set one up for next week doing the following:
Buy a 112 put
Sell a 110 Put
Cost .80 to put it on or $80

I sell a put further down because I don't mind owning NVDA below say $105
Sold a 104 put for 1.02 or $102

I collected $22 to place the trade and can make another $200 if NVDA finishes next week below $110,

I manage them also. As soon as the order is in, I set a buy on the short 104 put at .05-.20 ($5-20). It clears the risk, makes the spread free, frees up margin (do another set). I set up a roll order to take the 112 down to 111 and collect .65-.80 ($65-80). This way if it moves higher, the short put clears, price falls, lock in profit from the spread. If the spread roll order fills, I set the new order to close the 111-110 spread for .85 and let it work.

I also do these during the day if the market looks like it's going up. Collect that premium and set an order to sell it for a credit. Did a set today where I got $22 and sold it for another $10. $32 total for doing nothing. Put multiples of them on if you have the equity. Think about 5 or 10x, etc. adds up quick. Only do this if you are OK owning the stock at the lower put sold level.

Selling puts is a great way to generate cash on stocks you want to own. If I get put shares, I turn around and wheel them selling a call at the same strike. I get shares at 104, I sell a 104 call for the next week. NVDA ATM weeklies are around $400 for the week. Keep doing it until they get called away, or after the first week start rolling the sold call strike level up, collect less premium, but get some share price appreciation.
 
crackedback said:
saw something today with one of the women on cnbc saying that the street doesn't believe the earnings going forward on NVDA. Apple
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In an SMCI kinda way?
They’ve had a couple accounting and reporting issues. Nearly kicked off the index this last time.
 
I wish I knew more about that sort of thing. Small cap, large cap, huh? Mutual funds another "huh"? I'm gonna be getting a little bit here in the next couple weeks as my mom passed away last summer and were about to close on the sale of her house (where I grew up and lived til I was 24) I'm now 57 and really don't know what to do other than I want to put it somewhere it won't be "blown" after I do a few improvements to the house I have lived in since 98.
A couple of windows, black top for the driveway, etc. I also have an old 401 from an old job and am tired of seeing the minus signs quarter to quarter and don't really know how to turn those around.
I'm also vested in my current job but can't collect my retirement from there til 67 (if I make it that long) whether I work that long or not.... I have 9-1/2 years to that point.
 
crackedback said:
No not SMCI level stuff.

Just forward expectation
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The CAPEX for META, Amazon, Google,& Microsoft reported last
quarter seem to suggest otherwise, No?

volaredon said:
I also have an old 401 from an old job and am tired of seeing the minus signs quarter to quarter and don't really know how to turn those around
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Try to roll that old one into your new 401k and get into your account, look around, and pay attention to individual investment performance.
 
volaredon said:
I wish I knew more about that sort of thing. Small cap, large cap, huh? Mutual funds another "huh"? I'm gonna be getting a little bit here in the next couple weeks as my mom passed away last summer and were about to close on the sale of her house (where I grew up and lived til I was 24) I'm now 57 and really don't know what to do other than I want to put it somewhere it won't be "blown" after I do a few improvements to the house I have lived in since 98.
A couple of windows, black top for the driveway, etc. I also have an old 401 from an old job and am tired of seeing the minus signs quarter to quarter and don't really know how to turn those around.
I'm also vested in my current job but can't collect my retirement from there til 67 (if I make it that long) whether I work that long or not.... I have 9-1/2 years to that point.
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Hate to say it, fear is the number one inhibitor to gains in the market. Have to educate yourself in the markets and vehicles to invest in. Retirement is usually the first or second largest asset people have and they take zero interest in it. It's a nationwide issue in the US. Partly perpetuated by an industry that just wants to get that easy management fee with zero regard for actual performance.

Move the old 401K to a self directed IRA. There is no tax implication if going from one deferred plan to another. With the last few years of market performance, you should not be seeing any negative numbers with big indexes/stocks holdings.

My friends daughter spoke with an advisor and the suggestion was to put 35-40% in bonds... WTF? Straight out of some stupid book written 30+ years ago. She's 25 years old. Zero reason to have any bonds in a portfolio at that age unless you are already a multi-millionaire wanting stable income from the asset.
I can't stand the "advisor" industry. Most don't beat the market and then charge you for the under-performance. If you can't beat the market, what value are you providing.

My 2 cents, if you budget to live on what you will receive in retirement, this money you got is a kicker. Ladder into the market, 25% at a time. Buy some SP500/QQQ today, set a buy at another level below here for another 25%, two more tranches at other levels. Find a less expensive alternative like SPLG for the SP and get 100 shares. With 100 shares, sell covered calls and buy more shares with the premium. Look on youtube regarding selling covered calls (mike and his whiteboard is excellent, really dry, great info). The shares can be the one you sold the calls on or some other stock/etf.

STAY AWAY from mutual funds, GARBAGE with management fees you don't need to pay. Stick with SPY/QQQ(nasdaq)/IWM(russell 2000) index stuff.
 
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crackedback said:
Hate to say it, fear is the number one inhibitor to gains in the market. Have to educate yourself in the markets and vehicles to invest in. Retirement is usually the first or second largest asset people have and they take zero interest in it. It's a nationwide issue in the US. Partly perpetuated by an industry that just wants to get that easy management fee with zero regard for actual performance.

Move the old 401K to a self directed IRA. There is no tax implication if going from one deferred plan to another. With the last few years of market performance, you should not be seeing any negative numbers with big indexes/stocks holdings.

My friends daughter spoke with an advisor and the suggestion was to put 35-40% in bonds... WTF? Straight out of some stupid book written 30+ years ago. She's 25 years old. Zero reason to have any bonds in a portfolio at that age unless you are already a multi-millionaire wanting stable income from the asset.
I can't stand the "advisor" industry. Most don't beat the market and then charge you for the under-performance. If you can't beat the market, what value are you providing.

My 2 cents, if you budget to live on what you will receive in retirement, this money you got is a kicker. Ladder into the market, 25% at a time. Buy some SP500/QQQ today, set a buy at another level below here for another 25%, two more tranches at other levels. Find a less expensive alternative like SPLG for the SP and get 100 shares. With 100 shares, sell covered calls and buy more shares with the premium. Look on youtube regarding selling covered calls (mike and his whiteboard is excellent, really dry, great info). The shares can be the one you sold the calls on or some other stock/etf.

STAY AWAY from mutual funds, GARBAGE with management fees you don't need to pay. Stick with SPY/QQQ(nasdaq)/IWM(russell 2000) index stuff.
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No sarcasm intended....We need more advisors like you looking out for the little guy instead of themselves. That would allow both parties to get wealthy.
 
crackedback said:
Hate to say it, fear is the number one inhibitor to gains in the market. Have to educate yourself in the markets and vehicles to invest in. Retirement is usually the first or second largest asset people have and they take zero interest in it. It's a nationwide issue in the US. Partly perpetuated by an industry that just wants to get that easy management fee with zero regard for actual performance.

Move the old 401K to a self directed IRA. There is no tax implication if going from one deferred plan to another. With the last few years of market performance, you should not be seeing any negative numbers with big indexes/stocks holdings.

My friends daughter spoke with an advisor and the suggestion was to put 35-40% in bonds... WTF? Straight out of some stupid book written 30+ years ago. She's 25 years old. Zero reason to have any bonds in a portfolio at that age unless you are already a multi-millionaire wanting stable income from the asset.
I can't stand the "advisor" industry. Most don't beat the market and then charge you for the under-performance. If you can't beat the market, what value are you providing.

My 2 cents, if you budget to live on what you will receive in retirement, this money you got is a kicker. Ladder into the market, 25% at a time. Buy some SP500/QQQ today, set a buy at another level below here for another 25%, two more tranches at other levels. Find a less expensive alternative like SPLG for the SP and get 100 shares. With 100 shares, sell covered calls and buy more shares with the premium. Look on youtube regarding selling covered calls (mike and his whiteboard is excellent, really dry, great info). The shares can be the one you sold the calls on or some other stock/etf.

STAY AWAY from mutual funds, GARBAGE with management fees you don't need to pay. Stick with SPY/QQQ(nasdaq)/IWM(russell 2000) index stuff.
Click to expand...
Just wondering...are there still"no load" mutual funds?
 
barbee6043 said:
Just wondering...are there still"no load" mutual funds?
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Load usually means there is a fee to get in or out of the fund. There is usually a yearly management fee assessed regardless of the "load". You can use your imagination as to what I think of them and their "Load".

I think most of those load funds are long dead. I remember when that term was tossed around back in the 80-90's era. I doubt many charge that fee any longer with the number of funds out there that don't do it.

My 2 cents, no to mutual funds. You Dave fans,please don't follow his M Fund advice here. He's sharp on lots of things, wrong here. No need when there are Index ETF's that the funds are compared to for performance. Buy the index fund (can also sell calls on many - a weekly/monthly dividend), not some fund that mirrors it and charges you a fee. Ex. go buy a car and bring it to my house so I can drive the wheels off it and give it back at 10K miles. Would you do that? Nope. Same as mutual funds/advisors, except they are skimming money off your account yearly (devaluing the car). Here is an example with really small numbers and the huge difference over the long term, that even a 1% management fee impairs your returns. $250 every month for 35 years at 10%

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$250 every month for 35 years at 10% gets you 820K. If you pay that "advisor" 1% over the same time frame and they match the market (most do not), they take almost 170K from you over those 35 years, balance 652K. Avg monthly reduction over time, 400/month. You have an hour... see the following for an example of the no interest deal.

I have a friend with roughly a 5 million dollar account at a place that beat the market once in 20 years. His excuse, I don't have time for that stuff. I asked, "What is the highest $/hr you made when working? Was it more than 4,000/hr?' Answer - Nope. He could manage his stuff in one hour a month, just like his "advisor", saving 4K per month in management fees. Unreal... With thing like auto dividend reinvestment and such, it's simple. But he's a nice guy... that response always kills me. I'm cool with you to, do more with you than the advisor and you don't flow me anything... LOL
 
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